Friday, 13 June 2014

Don't panic, Captain!

Those of us of a certain age will well remember Corporal Jones's exhortation to Captain Mainwaring. However serious the problem, the loyal and trusty subordinate always advocated calm whilst running around like the proverbial headless chicken. And the problem was always solved by his colleagues - who didn't panic, rather than by Cpl J who of course always did.

I was reminded of this when reading about the BoE's warning that a rise in interest rates is more imminent than we may have thought. Governor Carney is by no means a Cpl Jones and doesn't appear to be a man who will panic, but I sense that there is an air of panic generally in the repeated references to a housing price bubble and the need to use interest rates to prick it.

I am fortunate to own property in London and the Midlands and whilst the rise in London prices is remarkable, I can assure you that it is not matched in the Shires. There may have been some upwards movement in the last 12 months but I don't think prices generally are much higher than they were before the recession. And what increase in activity there is may be quickly extinguished by a hefty rise in borrowing costs.

This, I guess, is the Governor's dilemma. We don't have one housing market, we have two: London and the rest. Using a sledgehammer to crack the South East nut may be sensible but it will, at the same time, cause immense damage to a less robust and slowly recovering housing market in the rest of the country.

The major reason for London residential property inflation is lack of supply. Solve that and prices will naturally stabilise. Restricting the availability of money by making it more expensive won't get new houses built; if anything it will achieve the reverse as developers take flight fearing that there will be a shortage of buyers. That is the last thing that we need.

We employ a substantial body of intelligent and highly paid people in both HM Treasury and the Bank of England. Now is the time for them to show their value by coming up with a more thought through and intelligent solution to this problem than jacking up interest rates. We must all say to Governor Carney - "Don't panic, Governor" and hope he listens.

Wednesday, 4 June 2014

It's just not cricket…or is it?

The furore surrounding Jos Buttler's dismissal at Edgbaston seems at odds with the facts. The rules are clear: if you are out of your crease whilst the ball is "live" and the bowler has not commenced his delivery, you can be run out. Etiquette demands that you are warned that this will happen if you continue to drift up the pitch before the ball has been bowled, and we are told that Buttler was warned more than once. Angelo Mathews, as captain of the fielding team has been criticised for not calling Buttler back but, given the above, it is difficult to understand why. All ways up, it looked like a clean and fully deserved dismissal. No question.

And yet this seems a minority view. Many people say that it wasn't within the spirit of the game and that the fact that it was within the letter of the law is missing the point. Cricket is a Gentlemens game and Gentlemen don't behave like this. Pinching a yard whilst backing up is a widespread practice and if every bowler behaved like Senanayake then matches wouldn't last for long. No, they say, the right thing would have been to remove the bails but then call Buttler back and allow him to continue his innings, presumably suitably chastened.

Are they mad? This is the man who almost destroyed a seemingly unassailable lead on Saturday and nearly won the game for England. A man who had been warned, twice, that he would be run out if he continued to poach ground, and who at the time of the stumping was probably six feet down the wicket. Had the roles been reversed I wonder if an English bowler and his captain would have been so roundly criticised for taking legitimate advantage of a situation that they were presented with and dismissing a batsman who presented possibly their biggest threat?

These are professionals. They know the rules and should play to them. Buttler took a calculated risk and it didn't pay off. He (and his captain), should have the good grace to accept that and make sure that when the Test series starts, England leave goodwill in the Pavilion and play to win according to the rules.