The Bonaparte Factor

When David Cameron set out his policy on our continued position within the EU - a significant renegotiation of the EU's powers followed by an in/out referendum, I didn't doubt that he believed that was the right course of action. I just didn't see how he was going to achieve it. The idea that Brussels - and other Member States - would willingly agree to a repatriation of powers and autonomy was anathema to everything I knew about the EU. A beaurocratic behemoth, growing in size and power would surely never be persuaded that it should diet. The old adage of turkeys, votes and Christmas came to mind. "No", I said to myself, "he may have the best of intentions but it just isn't achievable".

How subtly things have changed. The Conservatives have just lost an election, coming third behind UKIP and Labour, and ought to be out for the count. But, strangely, the chances of Mr Cameron delivering what he has committed to seem now to be much greater. This election has not just catapulted Mr Farage to a position of influence; it has shown up the growing sense of dissatisfaction around Europe with the way the Union has become overly dominant. Only the Germans seem content  with the status quo - or maybe they have too much respect for Frau Merkel to say otherwise.

The fact is that if Mr Cameron can get elected with a working majority next May he is likely to be negotiating a slimming down of the EU as part of a group rather than as a lone wolf. He will be able to rely on other Members making similar demands and being mutually supportive. In the face of that, the Commission may have little choice but to agree to the kind of changes that we clearly want. And his chances of winning the next election must be improved if, like I can, voters begin to see that he could deliver the benefits of EU membership without the baggage.

I don't know how Mr Cameron has engineered this but it is beginning to look like he is either a quite brilliant strategist or - hence the reference to Bonaparte - a lucky General. Given a choice between the two, I will go for the Bonaparte factor every time.