It seems likely that we will be asked to vote in a referendum about our continued membership of the EU this year, possibly as early as June.
The last time we were given this choice was in June 1975. The similarities are striking. In the 1974 election campaign the Labour Party promised, if elected, to hold a referendum on whether to stay in the EEC (as it then was), on renegotiated terms or to leave. Prime Minister Harold Wilson allowed his Cabinet a free vote on the issue and led the campaign to stay in. It was a bruising battle with many in his party and the Trade Union movement arguing strongly in favour of a withdrawal. The Conservative opposition supported the Prime Minister (hardly surprising as Ted Heath had taken us into the EEC two years earlier), and in the end the decision was clear - 67% of the electorate said 'Yes". I suspect Mr Cameron has his fingers firmly crossed that he will be able to achieve a similar result forty years on.
There is much campaigning to be done and no doubt the choices facing us will be spelled out in great detail, at least I hope they will because at the moment I, for one, struggle to fully understand what they are. But the biggest question which I suspect no-one can properly answer is: what would life be like if we left the EU?
The doom-mongers predict a grim and lonely time. They say that we are so trade dependent on our EU partners that leaving would be akin to commercial suicide. Industry would up-sticks and relocate to other EU member states, the finance industry would relocate to Germany, and global superpowers like the USA and China would shift their focus away from the UK and forge closer links with the remaining EU members, all to the severe detriment of the UK.
Those in favour of leaving say this is all rubbish. They point to numerous non-EU states that not only trade with the EU on very advantageous terms but do so without the 'dead hand' of EU bureaucracy holding them back. They point out that in many instances the EU needs the UK more than the other way around and say that our future outside the Union will be every bit as prosperous as if we stay in. Most importantly, we would retake control of our own destiny.
Who knows which of these scenarios is correct? No-one, I suspect, and this is the conundrum we face. In analogous terms, we are in a failing business partnership. All was rosy when we got together 40 years ago but our partners' increasing demands, selfishness and intractability have forced us further and further apart. We feel that we put in far more than we get out and we now agree on hardly anything. Sometimes we can barely bring ourselves to speak to each other and simply go through the motions. The prospect of breaking free and being able to do what we want, when we want, grows ever more attractive. Who cares if it might be a little painful, or that for a time we may be financially worse off. Surely it will be worth it in the long run?
And yet there is comfort and safety in the status quo. Is the grass really any greener elsewhere? Do we really know what life on our own will be like? What will we do if it turns out to be even worse than we have now? No, play safe, we say and stick with what we've got. No point in taking chances when we can put up with things. It may not be perfect but it's the best option we have.
This, I suspect, is the biggest challenge that the "No" campaign will have - inertia. Persuading us to take that leap of faith into the unknown will require the most carefully prepared and skilful advocacy. Passion, yes, but hard headed facts and figures will more likely win the day. History shows that we are far more likely to opt to retain what we have than choose change.
There is one spoiler. Electing to stay assumes that the partnership is saveable and sustainable, but what if it isn't? What if our growing dissatisfaction is shared by our partners (which it almost certainly is), and a "Yes" vote now would really just be papering over the cracks. What will we do if and when the whole thing comes crashing down around our ears and what will be the cost to us then both in hard cash terms and in the loss of the opportunity to forge new relationships and build a new future now? Maybe an early exit on negotiated terms would be our best option?
Anyone got a Crystal Ball they can lend me?
No comments:
Post a Comment